Well, here we are on the eve of the much-anticipated, or at least much ballyhooed Iowa primary. I have refrained from commenting on American political developments, other than the occasional snide remark about the current administration (Have I mentioned lately that this is, without doubt, the most disastrous Presidency since that of Woodrow Wilson?) I will become even more reticent about my preferences, as the election approaches. Nothing is more polarizing than political partisanship, and I see no need to flaunt my choices on these pages. My wife and I have been married for....well, a long time, and we have never, ever told the other how we voted --not even the party!
That said, here on Thursday afternoon at 5:22 PM before the caucuses open at 7:00, I make the following predictions:
Barack Obama will come out on top in the Iowa caucuses. This will lead to victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well. I think he has correctly read the temper of the times. But, this in no way means that he will necessarily receive the nomination. (I recall a Saturday Night Live skit from late 2000 or early 2001, where the Clintons had to be literally pried out of the White House. You might say there are entitlement issues involved here.)
Mike Huckabee will win for the GOP. What this means is anyone's guess. What it will not mean is that he has a clear shot to the nomination. I can make an excellent case why each of the GOP candidates cannot possibly receive the nomination. I cannot make a case why any of them will. But one of them has to, I suppose.
For political junkies, you can get your fix by checking in at Daniel Larison's Eunomia. He is a Byzantine scholar, frequent contributor to various journals, Orthodox, helluva nice guy, with one of the keenest political insights anywhere.
3 comments:
Nice work with your predictions there, John. You beat out some of the pundits, Larison included.
Well, thanks. I wasn't surprised that Obama and Huckabee won--but I was impressed with their margins of victory.
Let me know when you decide to start blogging again--we all miss you!
Based on the odds posted by London bookies, I've been predicting (though not supporting) Huckleberry for a long time now.
And, it appears that the smart money was smart indeed, as I strongly doubt that, for whatever reasons malefic or not, the US will elect a Mormon, a interracial man named Barack Hussein Obama, or a women to the White House.
Now, if only Dr. Paul can continue to surge enough to make Huck put him on the GOP ticket!
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